Toni & Guy’s Chinese Franchise

Chinese barbers are a little different to what we’re used to.

Fancy a haircut Madam?

She must be good there's even a queue.

I don’t think Toni & Guy need worry. It transpires that anyone who wants to be a hairdresser can be. They simply set themselves up on a street corner and offer free haircuts. This way they get to practice and practice, with no training, until they feel comfortable enough in their abilities to either move into a salon, or start charging. As the haircut is free there’s a constant stream of people availing themselves of the service.

 

 

 

 

Is there a Chinese Real Estate bubble?

Xian is a city almost exactly in the middle of China. It’s the capital of the Shaanxi province and is a relatively large city having about 8 million inhabitants. The majority of the population live on the flat lands that surround the city centre rather than in the city itself and have been farmers for hundreds of years. However, Xian and it’s surrounds are experiencing a massive housing development boom. Housing is probably the wrong adjective as what’s being built are massive high rise blocks of flats and they are being built by the hundreds of thousands of units.

Outside of the city the villages are low rise, one family, brick or breeze block built houses but many of these villages are now completely uninhabited or as near as damn it. Western culture and influences have infiltrated the general populace over the last 20 years or so and with the growing prosperity of China and the Chinese as a whole the young people don’t want to work on the farms anymore and are leaving the outlying villages to move to the city.

A typical Xian region 'village' - picturesque isn't it?

The picture above is of a typical outlying village. Half, if not more of the buildings are empty, there appears to be no planning within these villages just a jumble of buildings erected in a slip-shod manner as required.  When this is compared with new purpose built apartments within, or on the edge of a bustling city, which are all marketed in a manner that would never  be allowed in the USA or Europe (not just mere advertising ‘puff’ but blatant lies and the overriding impression and promises that if you move to one of the new apartments your whole life will change to mirror those of the people you see in western TV, films etc.,) the temptation to move becomes irresistible. Apart from that, who wants to toil the soil when you can sit on a factory production line for more money?. The youth of central China cannot be blamed.

Here’s the problem however. The first apartment blocks sold and sold quickly. This encouraged developers to build more. The banks were making easy money lending to the developers and more and more banks and quasi-state loan companies wanted to jump on the bandwagon. Finance got easier to source and cheaper. More developers borrowed more money. More apartment blocks were built. Sound familiar? Now the outlying lands of Xian are covered with completed, but empty, apartment blocks, whilst next to these more apartment blocks continue to be built. Take a look at the pictures below. It’s hard to realise the scale from these pics but these apartment blocks are maybe 30 or 40 floors high with floor plates that allow 8 to 12 apartments (or more; a typical family unit in China will be no more than 50m2) per floor.

Just one 'small' development of apartments

And another. See the 'village' in the foreground, it's about to get bulldozed.

More of the same. Note the blocks to the left, completed by completely vacant.

And yet more.

These are just a small snapshot of what’s happening in and around Xian. Look at all the cranes, many of them were stationery. Many of the buildings now, no longer appear to be being worked on. With many of them the obvious question arises, “why are they building those 6 additional tower blocks when they already have 1000’s of empty completed apartments?”. The answer from our guide was that there is much demand. But, when asked what jobs all the people who bought these apartments were going to do, she was a little more unsure. No blame apportioned to our guide and she certainly wasn’t being monitored in what she told us or what she showed us, but I think she hadn’t really thought it through. It’s clear there are far too many apartments. Supply has far exceeded demand.

Now, if this is typical of just one city in China, imagine how big the problem is across the whole of China. The debt that is secured against these buildings, that are just never going to be sold, must run into trillions of $/£/€. In my opinion there is a major real estate bubble in China and we, across the rest of the world, are relying upon the Chinese Government to manage it and prevent it going pop. At present this is being done by the banks (which do what the State tells them) rolling over loans at maturity and/or allowing unpaid interest to accrue. Sound familiar again?

Also, another, perhaps more worrying, thought to consider. If Xian is typical of Chinese cities and the population are leaving the countryside en masse to move to a ‘better’ lifestyle in cities and the youth are not going into farming but onto the factory floor, then who will till the fields and tend the crops? Who will be there to feed China’s massive population in 10 years time?

Terracotta Worriers – Is it a hoax?

China, Xian, 19.02.2012

Could the Terracotta Warriors be a hoax?

Towards the end of our guided tour around the 3 vast, aircraft hangar like structures that enclose the site and excavations of the Terracotta Warriors the thought did cross my mind that, just possibly, the whole thing could be a huge and expansive hoax the Chinese have played on the world, in an attempt to drag tourism to an area of the country that, let’s face it, no-one would visit were it not for the Terracotta Warriors. Xian sits at 800m above sea level in the middle of a vast, flat, dusty, plateau. You will not see a single clean car in and around Xian, all are covered with a thick layer of sand and dust, not dissimilar to builders cars as they drive away from site at the end of the day. Certainly, Xian was the start or end  (depending which way you look at it) of the Silk Route and certainly Xian was the home of the Chinese Emperors for many hundreds of years but even they discarded it and moved to Beijing. Despite the Great Mosque, the Dayan (Big Wild Goose) Pagoda and the preserved city wall, it’s the Terracotta Warriors that bring in the tourists and their wallets full of money.

What made me think the whole thing could be a hoax?

It started with the kneeling archer. I wish I’d taken a photo from the rear of the case now, although it probably wouldn’t have come out, the flash reflecting off the glass and over exposing the picture. Come to think of it, that’s probably why it was so dark in that hall, so that you had to use your flash to take pictures (although this wasn’t allowed as there were signs to the contrary everywhere and lurking Chinese Army guards to reprimand you if you did use flash). But, the sole of his shoe on the foot that was bent at the end of his kneeling leg and thus revealed had a pattern across it. Our guide even pointed it out with the proud words “see, the makers of these soldiers went to great lengths to ensure each was individual and accurate to the real life person upon which it was modeled. Look you can even see the markings on the sole of the shoe of this one”. Wow. That’s amazing. Absolutely fantastic. The workmanship that’s gone into that. Wow. But. Wait, hang on a minute. That looks just like the sole of a plimsoll. Something like a Dunlop Green Flash from the 80’s. Surely in xxxBCE they wouldn’t have had rubber soles like this with patterns in them? Surely they’d have been flat pieces of leather with nothing more than scuff and wear marks upon them. This doesn’t seem right.

(ps. I borrowed this pic from Wikipedia – thanks chaps.)

Is this a Dunlop Green Flash ?????

Thinking nothing more of it we moved on and a few display cases later came to a room full of Terracotta Warriors complete with a filmset type backdrop comprising a photographic image of Hall 1 and the massed ranks of the warriors. It was staged such that you could stand amongst the full size warriors in the front few rows, have your picture taken and, thanks to the backdrop, it would look like you were in the pits amongst the real warriors. You’ll see what I mean from the picture below.

Spot the odd ones out....

I asked our guide whether or not the life size warriors we were standing against were the real thing. She laughed. “Not at all, these are made in a local factory. In fact, if you want we can go to the factory and they will take a picture of your face and then make a life size warrior for you, in clay, with your face modeled into it. They’ll pack it and ship it for you anywhere in the world for US$800”. So, for about £500 I could get a 6’2” warrior with my face, weighing about 50 – 60kg (they’re hollow) shipped back to London. And, most of that cost would be the freight charges.

Now, if they can do that, and these things we’re standing amongst look and feel just like the ones I’ve just seen in the various pits, and everyone knows everything gets copied and made in China, what if none of the ones out in the halls are real? What if it were all some big hoax, concocted by Mr. Yan [click here to find out who he is] to supplement the meagre living he was making from farming crops on this parched dust bowl? Just imagine if Mr. Yan and his mates, being aware of the legends surrounding Emperor Qin, came up with the story of the well and the fragments as a laugh or a small hoax. Then imagine that the story began to run away with them. They called in some archaeologists who were duped (or bribed) by Mr. Yan. News got out, other archaeologists came and before Mr. Yan knew it the whole thing was running away from him and mushrooming rapidly. The local, state and national governments get involved and start to pump millions into the “excavation” and “uncovering of a lost treasure” – when really they’re pumping millions into building a factory to manufacture the warriors, then they smash them to pieces, sprinkle them around the pits and allow young, gullible, wannabe, archaeologists come on an internship (ie for nothing) and dig around in the soil and see what they can find. Imagine that. It’s not too implausible is it. What about the UNESCO World Heritage status you ask?. If done properly and on a big enough scale, it can’t be impossible to hoodwink the inspectors can it? I mean, you can’t even carbon date these things because you’ve actually used the same earth and clay as would have been sitting in the ground hundreds of years ago anyway. Plus, and I wish I’d take some photos of these now. All around the area and around Xian in general are massive open cast pits where something has been quarried out. The remaining soil around the walls of the pits is a reddy-brown clay.  The manufacture of bricks, tiles and clay products seems to be a staple industry in these parts so the manufacture of a few thousand clay soldiers would not be beyond the impossible for some.

Originals damaged in earthquakes or broken bits from the modern day factory????

Hoax or not? What do you think? Have the Chinese hoodwinked everyone? Perhaps an attempt by them to get one back on the Americans for having hoodwinked everyone they landed a man on the moon? (I actually believe the moon landings were for real, but then again……………….)

Oh, I forgot to mention, the title Terracotta Worriers is a deliberate typo, by me. However, as it appears in numerous places in Chinese guide books, on the motorway and access roads, on posters etc etc I did start to think that maybe it’s not a typo by he Chinese. Maybe it’s a freudian slip and they really are worried about something. Someone finding out perhaps?

Terracotta Warriors

The Terracotta Warriors were created by the emperor Qin Shi Huang over the period 248BC to 210BC (give or take a few years – as Christ hadn’t been born then who knew what year it was). Qin was the first emperor of a united China. China had been 7 separate kingdoms prior to Qin’s unification of them. Based upon the history we were given for the creation of the Terracotta Warriors I doubt very much that Qin united the 7 kingdom’s by peaceful means.

Pit 1, Terracotta Warriors

Qin, was by all accounts a vain man, a successful tyrant and dictator and someone that the likes of Gadaffi, Idi Amin, Saddam Hussein and others throughout time have probably taken ideas and instructions from. In fact, I heard, Qin’s book “How to win kingdoms and subjugate people” was a best seller at papyrus stores and tablet engravers around the world in those days!

Being the despotic, narcissistic, meglomaniac he was, he decided he was a demi-god and wanted to achieve full god-like status which could only mean one thing. He had to become immortal like the gods. To the this end he rounded up 4000 of his subjects, gave them a little money each and sent them out to the 4 corners of the world to find the “Elixir of Life”, a potion he had heard tell of which, once consumed, would guarantee his immortality. As we well know today no such potion exists. Over the years each one of the 4000 returned to their emperor with the tale that they had searched far and wide but could find no-one who knew how to make such a potion, or anyone who had taken such a potion, or any such potion on sale anywhere (even in Harrod’s which promises it sells, or can get, everything under the sun – although it was more commonly known as Herod’s in those days, before the arabs took it into foreign shores). Unfortunately for each and every messenger arriving home, Qin didn’t take the news kindly and viewing they had failed in their duty to him, he slit their throats, each and every one of the 4000 over a period of several years. For this reason alone, DHL, Fedex and UPS have always struggled to recruit in this part of China – memories are long here.

Now, Qin had a mighty army, the biggest and strongest that had ever been known across the former 7 kingdoms (hence he rose to be top dog). He also had 1000 concubines in his palace for his amusement who would be brought to him at the height of their fertility – but that’s another story. Realising there perhaps was not enough time in his mortal life for him find the magic elixir and achieve immortality he came up with the idea if he had to die he would make damn sure no-one stole his kingdom and power in the after life. He decided he would have his entire army, plus all their horses, chariots, weapons and followers on buried with him – regardless of the state of their own mortality at the time. Fortunately for the tens of thousands of warriors (and their families) in his army, Qin’s advisors persuaded him that this plan might not be the best plan in the world if he wanted his son, who would succeed him on the mortal earth, have any chance at all of maintaining recruitment levels for the future. Thus a plan was hatched that rather than bury the actual soldiers Qin would have craftsmen make life-like models of each and every one of them and those would be buried with him instead.

Warriors and their horses

For the next 38 years, long after Qin’s death as it transpired, 700,000 workers toiled night and day to make the 8,000 (and counting) soldiers, horses and chariots that today are known as the Terracotta Warriors. Each soldier has a different face and hairstyle, no two are identical and each was modeled on a living individual at the time. The only unrealistic feature however, is that Qin, being the type of person he was, gave instructions that the soldiers should be made taller than the real life individual, thus each is about 6’ tall or more, some 6” to 10” taller than they would have been in real life.

Facial modelling by Mr. Hoo Hung Phat Won

Facial modelling by Mr. Mi Sery G'uts

Not only did the life-like models have to be made but the trenches they were to be buried in had to be dug by hand and the models, some of which weigh several hundredweight, had to be moved into position such that they formed the massed ranks of a defending army with infantrymen, archers, horsemen and charioteers in their respective and correct battle formations with protection to the flanks and the rear. Once they were all made and assembled in position, the walls of the trenches were reinforced and large wooden timbers were cut and placed across the top. Over this was spread soil and the grass and crops were allowed to grow back on top, effectively hiding the army completely and utterly. This work took so long that Qin died long before it was completed but Qin, being the fella he was, left instructions with his son that no-one should ever know the whereabouts of his army and thus every single one of the 700,000 people (and their families) who worked on the project, if they had not died during the course of construction, were put to the sword once it was completed so they could never reveal where the army was. Nice chap! And it’s for reasons such as this that employment laws were brought in.

Are these the remains of the 700,000???

Qin, himself was buried 1.5km away from the site of the Terracotta Warriors in a tomb that to this day has not been excavated and, according to legend is filled to the rafters with gold, silver, jewels, jade and many many precious artefacts. More than enough to make the pyramids of Egypt and their contents appear like a corner shop to a hypermarket. “But” I hear you ask, “how come it’s not been plundered over the years? How come it’s still there?”. Local legend has it, and apparently, it’s been confirmed by archaeologists that have tried to enter the tomb, that this is the original Raiders of the Lost Ark Tomb. There are booby traps everywhere and people have died in the attempt. The Regional Government have decreed that they will excavate it, but only once they have finished the Terracotta Warriors site and only when they can afford to fully protect the tomb and it’s contents once all the booby traps have been disarmed. This they plan to do in about 50 years time and our grandchildren will have another wonder of the world to read about and visit.

How much of this is true and how much has been elaborated upon over time we will never know, although I’m sure there is a germ of truth there.However, I have another theory about the whole shebang but you’ll have to read this blog to find out.